On Thursday, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai said during the company’s first-quarter earnings update that Waymo would maintain selling self-driving vehicles to individuals as an option in the future, according to a report from Reuters. Pichai didn’t disclose any specifics about the potential to do so or a timeline, though he noted that “there is future optionality for personal ownership.”

Waymo currently operates over 700 self-driving vehicles, 300 of which are operating in San Francisco, and it’s the only company to operate a paid self-driving ride-hailing service as of yet.

The statement comes as Tesla and other companies aim to launch their own commercial robotaxi services, and while the electric vehicle (EV) giant already sells its Supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) software to individual owners. Additionally, Tesla aims to launch an Unsupervised version in the coming months.

Waymo launched in Austin in January in a unique partnership with Uber, while its self-driving ride-hailing vehicles in California run through its in-house ride-hailing app, Waymo One. It has opened the app to the public in multiple areas of Los Angeles and in cities surrounding and including San Francisco. The company also dropped the need to sign up for a waitlist to use the service in Los Angeles in November, after doing so in the Bay Area earlier that year.

The Alphabet-owned firm also started initial testing in Japan earlier this month, marking the company’s first time in an international market.

Waymo is setting the stage for its rollout in Tokyo.

Have you experienced a ride in Waymo's self-driving robotaxis?pic.twitter.com/V7lQf1CMjD

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 10, 2025

READ MORE ON WAYMO’S ROBOTAXIS: Here’s where Waymo is launching autonomous robotaxis next

Tesla is targeting a launch its first commercial robotaxis and Unsupervised FSD around Austin in June, and CEO Elon Musk reiterated this goal during the company’s Q1 earnings call on Tuesday. When asked about how Tesla expected its commercial robotaxi services would compete with Waymo, which is already operating paid driverless rides in multiple cities, Musk highlighted how costly the company’s cars are to produce:

The issue with Waymo’s cars is it costs way more money, but that is the issue. The car is very expensive, made in low volume. Teslas probably cost 25 percent or 20 percent of what a Waymo costs, and are made in very high volume.

So, ironically, we’re the ones to make the bet that a pure AI solution with cameras, and what do you have? The car actually will listen for sirens and that kind of thing. It’s the right move.

And Waymo decided that an expensive sensor suite is the way to go, even though Google is very good at AI.

Musk also went on to predict that Tesla would eventually capture at least 90 percent of the robotaxi market, or potentially as much as 99 percent, with millions of cars on the road that are already able to run FSD.

He also highlights that Tesla’s vehicles at both the Gigafactory in Austin, Texas and the Fremont, California plant can drive themselves fully autonomously from the end of the production line to the outbound lot. Musk also said that he was “confident” that the first Model Y units to drive themselves to the customer will take place later this year, from both the Fremont and Austin factories.

Ex-Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla, Cybercab: “They’re a car company with a driver-assist system”

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After Waymo shared plans to start testing vehicles in Japan in December, the Google-owned firm detailed the launch event in a press release on Monday. The event featured officials from project partners GO, a taxi platform, and Nihon Kotsu, the largest taxi company in Tokyo, along with featuring one of the company’s camera-, lidar-, and radar-outfitted Jaguar I-Pace units, expected to begin manual testing around Tokyo in the weeks to come.

Ichiro Kawanabe, Board Director at Nihon Kotsu and Chairman at both GO and the Japan Taxi Association, said that Waymo’s U.S. operations “demonstrated significant safety benefits,” along with thanking the company for hosting the event at the newly developed Takanawa Gateway City complex.

“I took my first ride with Waymo in Phoenix a year and a half ago and was amazed that there was really no one in the driver’s seat,” the chairman said. “That was the moment I was convinced that autonomous driving technology could absolutely benefit Japan. It will help ensure mobility service in the future of Japan, with the growing aging population and labor shortage.”

Credit: Waymo

Credit: Waymo

This spring, Nihon Kotsu taxi operators will start driving Waymo vehicles across several Tokyo wards this spring, including Chiyoda, Chūō, Kōtō, Minato, Shibuya, Shinagawa, and Shinjuku. The tests will utilize 3D maps of the city, along with utilizing experienced drivers to generate data about traffic laws, patterns, and other road systems ahead of fully autonomous operation.

“After months of strong collaboration with Nihon Kotsu and GO, Waymo has reached a historic milestone— our first venture on international public roads,” said Nicole Gavel, Waymo Senior Director and Head of Business Development and Strategic Partnerships.

“Our partnership demonstrates how Waymo’s 15 years of operational expertise can adapt to new environments through strategic initiatives with industry leaders,” Gavel adds. “In Tokyo, we are abiding by the same steadfast principles that guide us in the U.S. — commitment to safety, dedication to earning trust in communities where we operate, and collaboration with local officials and community groups here in Tokyo.”

The news comes as Tesla, Amazon-owned firm Zoox, and still others are racing to enter the commercial robotaxi business throughout this year. It also comes amidst widespread speculation and debate about the emerging market, and as Tesla and Waymo both aim to begin operations internationally.

READ MORE ON WAYMO: Waymo study analyzes collisions with vulnerable road users

Tesla’s FSD in China, Mexico, commercial robotaxis still incoming

Waymo is already operating paid autonomous ride-hailing services around the U.S., and it said in December that it was giving more than 200,000 autonomous rides per week.

The company currently offers Waymo services in San Francisco and Los Angeles, California, Phoenix, Arizona, and, through a partnership with Uber, in Austin, Texas, where Tesla has a Gigafactory and plans to launch initial robotaxi services. The Alphabet-owned company is also aiming to launch services in Atlanta, Georgia and Miami, Florida this year, alongside its early tests in Tokyo.

Although Tesla doesn’t currently operate driverless ride-hailing in any capacity, individual owners in North America can purchase or subscribe to its Supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, on which the company’s forthcoming robotaxi platform will be based. In October, the company unveiled the two-seat Cybercab vehicle, which has no steering wheel or pedals and will be used for the upcoming commercial robotaxi system.

Additionally, the company is aiming to launch its first unsupervised rides commercially in Austin in June, and it recently debuted Supervised FSD in China and Mexico, marking the company’s first international markets.

: Our FULL first ride in the @Tesla Cybercab pic.twitter.com/6gR7OgKRCz

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 11, 2024

Waymo vs. Tesla vs. the competition

While Tesla hasn’t quite gotten a commercial robotaxi service to market yet, Waymo, Amazon-owned company Zoox, and still many others have begun their own paid ride-hailing services or early tests. Meanwhile, Tesla’s approach to the technology is vastly different than that of Waymo and others, utilizing a camera-only, AI-trained neural network system, rather than 3D geomapping.

For one, the company can generate a larger pool of training data from real-time driving behavior of its individual owners, for instance as compared to Waymo’s use of a more-limited fleet of taxi drivers. Many argue that this, along with the cost-effectiveness of producing a system that’s built into every vehicle and utilizes only cameras, make the system more scalable than those of Waymo and others.

Still, some support the use of more than just camera systems and building in sensor redundancy as a way to maximize safety, especially as the technologies are still fairly new. Former Waymo CEO John Krafcik, who was a part of the company until 2021, criticized the FSD system in December for not including enough safety measures to support a realistic commercial robotaxi business, and he went on to call Tesla “a car company with a driver-assist system.”

“If a company were serious about building a safe and accessible robotaxi business, it would look nothing like what was shown,” Krafcik said during an interview. “The cost of a robust sensor set, including lidar, is trivial on a per-mile basis. Even more so for mapping. And the safety benefits measured in human harm reduction are real and verifiable.”

Waymo valued at over $45 billion following latest financing round: report

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On Tuesday, Waymo announced in a press release that it will be bringing its autonomous ride-hailing vehicles to Washington D.C. in 2026, after it recently announced plans to start deploying the services in Atlanta, Georgia, and Miami, Florida, sometime in 2025. The D.C. services will utilize the Waymo One app, unlike some of the cities which will roll out through a partnership agreement.

“Waymo One is making fully autonomous driving a reality for millions of people across the U.S.” said Tekedra Mawakana, Waymo Co-CEO. “We’re excited to bring the comfort, consistency, and safety of Waymo One to Washingtonians, those who work and play in the city every day, and the millions of people from around the world who travel to the District every year.”

The company says it plans to continue working closely with legislators on regulations needed to operate driverless vehicles in D.C. Additionally, Waymo says it’s currently operating over 200,000 fully autonomous, paid driverless ride-hails per week, as Tesla and others aim to enter the commercial robotaxi space in the coming months.

This video shows the strength of Tesla's vision-based approach.

There are very few, if any, advanced driver-assist systems today that will be able to navigate a road like this without specific training.pic.twitter.com/sSAUhjYp7V

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) March 5, 2025

Gonna be pretty tough to do the Waymo approach in a road like this.

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) March 5, 2025

READ MORE ON WAYMO: Ex-Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla, Cybercab: ‘They’re a car company with a driver-assist system’

“I’ve experienced firsthand how safely the Waymo Driver operates around pedestrians, cyclists, and other vulnerable road users,” writes Jonathan Adkins, the CEO of the Governors Highway Safety Association. “Waymo has worked with GHSA and our first responder network as they’ve expanded their service, always putting safety first. As someone who walks to work almost every day, I’m excited to share the road with Waymo in Washington, D.C.”

Waymo also recently launched its robotaxi services will deploy in a partnership with Uber in Austin, Texas, where Tesla also has a so-called Gigafactory and plans to roll out its own robotaxi services later this year. The company currently operates paid driverless ride-hailing or early testing in the following cities, primarily in the U.S.:

• San Francisco, California
• Larger San Francisco Bay Area Metro, California
• Los Angeles, California
• Phoenix, Arizona
• Austin, Texas
• Miami, Florida (early pilot testing)
• Tokyo, Japan (early pilot testing)

The news also comes as Tesla aims to roll out its first unsupervised drives with its in-house Full Self-Driving (FSD) software this summer, along with rolling out initial robotaxi ride-hailing services. While the company doesn’t currently operate any paid ride-hailing like Waymo One, the company’s vehicles can generate real-time training data from drivers with FSD Supervised engaged.

Waymo study analyzes collisions with vulnerable road users

The post Here’s where Waymo is launching autonomous robotaxis next appeared first on TESLARATI.

Krafcik shared his thoughts on Waymo, Tesla, and the Cybercab in an interview with Business Insider.

Still Not a Competitor

Krafcik, who led Waymo until 2021, previously noted that Tesla is just an electric vehicle maker with a “really good driver assistance system.” In his recent comments, the ex-Waymo CEO noted that his position regarding Tesla is still the same.

“Tesla has aspired to compete with Waymo for nearly ten years, but they still don’t. They’re a car company with a driver-assist system. They haven’t delivered a single fully autonomous revenue-generating ride yet, something Waymo is already doing a million times a month,” Krafcik noted.

Tesla is currently aiming to launch a robotaxi service using its Unsupervised FSD system around June 2025. Waymo, for its part, has noted that it is providing over 200,000 rides a week across several U.S. cities.

Cybercab Design Criticism

Tesla’s Cybercab, a sleek, two-seat robotaxi revealed in 2024, failed to impress Krafcik. While the Cybercab looks like a vehicle straight out of a science-fiction story, the former Waymo CEO noted that a company serious about building a safe and accessible robotaxi would not come up with an autonomous car that looks like the Cybercab.

“If a company were serious about building a safe and accessible robotaxi business, it would look nothing like what was shown,” Krafcik noted. He also defended Waymo’s use of multiple sensors on its vehicles. “The cost of a robust sensor set, including lidar, is trivial on a per-mile basis. Even more so for mapping. And the safety benefits measured in human harm reduction are real and verifiable.”

Three to Five-Year Lead

Ultimately, Krafcik noted that Waymo should have an edge in the robotaxi business for at least three to five years. “They are the only company in the world successfully deploying an embodied AI replacement for a licensed human driver that can be integrated into any vehicle — and doing this at scale with third-party data verifying significant performance and safety advantages over human drivers,” he stated.

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As of Tuesday, those in Austin can officially take a driverless Waymo robotaxi using the Uber app, as detailed in a press release from the ride-hailing company. The launch comes as Tesla is expected to debut Unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) services in Austin later this year, and after it was found to have applied for a permit to operate ride-hailing vehicles in California.

To access the Waymo robotaxis, users must opt in for the service on the Uber app at no additional cost. When awaiting rides, riders will have the option to accept the driverless Waymo robotaxi or to switch to a non-self-driving vehicle instead.

Additionally, riders will be able to use the Uber app to unlock the vehicle, open the trunk, and activate the trip, and the ride-hailing company also says it’s providing 24/7 customer support in case of any issues. The area of operation will allow riders to travel across 37 square miles of Austin, from Hyde Park to Downtown to Montopolis, and Uber also says the company plans to expand the service area in the future.

The launch also comes ahead of the South by Southwest (SXSW) music festival in Austin this weekend, which is expected to bring in bands and music enthusiasts from all over the world.

READ MORE ON ROBOTAXIS, TESLA’S FSD:

• Tesla is going in-house for robotaxi platform, says one competitor
• Tesla China owners share first impressions of FSD-style ‘City Autopilot’
• Tesla used this clever workaround to train FSD for China’s roads
• Tesla FSD’s rollout in Mexico is a bigger deal than it seems
• Cruise layoffs begin as GM winds down robotaxi business
• Waymo to test self-driving vehicles in another country in 2025
• Waymo study analyzes collisions with vulnerable road users

Waymo currently operates paid, self-driving ride-hails via an in-house platform through the Waymo One app in Los Angeles and around San Francisco, California, as well as in Phoenix, Arizona. As part of the announcement, Uber also says that the two companies will be partnering to launch robotaxi services in Atlanta, Georgia next.

During Tesla’s Q4 earnings call in January, CEO Elon Musk said that Tesla plans to launch its Unsupervised FSD system as a paid service in Austin in June. Tesla also operates a Gigafactory in Austin, where it builds the Model Y and the Cybertruck, and Musk has said launching in the city would let the company “dip its toe in the water” of commercial robotaxis with safety in mind.

In October, Musk also said that Tesla had been testing internal ride-hails for employees in the Bay Area, California, adding that users could already request a ride and be dropped off anywhere in the Bay. Last week, it was also widely reported that Tesla had in November applied for a “transportation charter-party carrier permit” from the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), which is the agency that helps regulate the state’s autonomous vehicles.

Tesla also launched its two-seat, steering wheel-less Cybercab in October during a Southern California event dubbed “We, Robot,” and you can see our coverage from the event below.

: Our FULL first ride in the @Tesla Cybercab pic.twitter.com/6gR7OgKRCz

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 11, 2024

Tesla mobile app tracker reports first lines referencing robotaxi service

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On Tuesday, Waymo announced in a press release that it is launching a two-month pilot program in the Southern California city, which will essentially pay $3.00 credits to riders who connect to seven eligible transit stations. The company, which is backed by Google’s parent company Alphabet, will run the program from February 4 through April 1, offering convenient routes to and from the Los Angeles International Airport (LAX).

In the announcement, the company says that credits will be added to rider accounts on the day following the ride, and they’ll then be usable for 60 days. Waymo also highlights the launch of the program arriving on Transit Equity Day, a holiday honoring civil rights hero Rosa Parks, whose birthday was on February 4.

The program will be used to study how Waymo One is used by riders as a first- and last-mile ride-hailing solution that it hopes to help integrate with public transportation options to make them more accessible. It says it also performed similar evaluations through its pilot program in San Francisco, which launched in October.

LA stations participating in the program are located at the following intersections/transit sites, as can also be seen on the map below:

• 5th and Arizona
• Lincoln and Jefferson
• Lincoln and Venice
• Sepulveda and Exposition
• Sepulveda and Washington
• Union Station and FlyAway
• UCLA Gateway

Credit: Waymo

READ MORE ON WAYMO: Waymo study analyzes collisions with vulnerable road users

Waymo, Tesla and commercial robotaxi services

Waymo One is the service and app the company uses for its driverless electric robotaxis, which currently offers paid rides to users in the Bay Area and around Los Angeles, as well as in Phoenix, Arizona and Austin, Texas. The company began paid LA rides in November, officially dropping the need for users to join a waitlist to ride.

In all of the aforementioned areas, users simply need to download the Waymo One app to hail a ride. The company has also announced plans to launch in Miami, Florida in the coming months.

Additionally, the firm says it’s operating 150,000 paid rides each week, resulting in a weekly reduction of over 220 tons of carbon emissions, and up from its 100,000 rides per week announced in August. In December, the company also announced plans to launch a pilot program in Japan, slated to begin this year.

Waymo is currently the only driverless ride-hailing company operating paid rides at such a large scale, with competitors like Amazon-owned Zoox rolling out initial services. Meanwhile, Tesla aims to begin offering unsupervised robotaxi services in June, following its unveiling of the steering wheel-less, two-seat Cybercab in October.

?: Our FULL first ride in the @Tesla Cybercab pic.twitter.com/6gR7OgKRCz

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 11, 2024

In addition to the Cybercab, which is expected to offer a similar paid ride-hailing service to Waymo One, Tesla currently sells its Supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, which the autonomous vehicle will utilize, as either a monthly subscription or one-time purchase to owners.

Tesla also teased a ride-hailing app interface as early as last April in its Q1 earnings Shareholder Deck, showing off a user’s ability to summon rides, set temperature controls in the vehicle, and follow along with navigation. Such a service has also been promised to Tesla owners for several years, and it’s eventually expected to let them deploy their own personal vehicles to autonomously give rides and generate income when not in use.

What are your thoughts? Let me know at zach@teslarati.com, find me on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send us tips at tips@teslarati.com.

Waymo valued at over $45 billion following latest financing round: report

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Tesla’s competitors in the autonomy space are plentiful, but a handful have developed platforms that are credible and revolutionary in their own right.

However, there are critics of everyone and everything. One critic of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software said that it is “not remotely close to Waymo,” stating that it is behind by “at least 100x.”

This is my experience in SF Bay. I have to make daily interventions on the Model 3 (mostly from wrong lane selection). Waymo you can basically go to sleep.

Tesla does feel generally safe in terms of understanding the environment and avoiding collision.

— James Wang (@draecomino) January 23, 2025

James Wang, who posted the skepticism regarding Tesla Full Self-Driving, said he admits that Tesla is far ahead in geographic coverage. Waymo is geofenced into certain cities and areas. He is a long-term Tesla shareholder, he says.

He went on to say he would “be shocked and delighted if it managed to get to Waymo level safety without hw changes.”

That’s where Tesla comes in.

Phil Duan, a Sr. Staff Software Engineer at Tesla in their Autopilot program for four years, rebutted Wang’s last statement, stating that he should “prepare to be shocked,” with no definite timeframe. His message definitely lets the mind wander at what could be:

Prepare to be shocked.

— Phil Duan (@philduan) January 24, 2025

It’s no secret that Tesla has astronomical expectations for its Full Self-Driving suite this year, which is automatically what most people’s minds will gravitate toward. CEO Elon Musk has already said he expects some jurisdictions to allow FSD to operate this year, especially in Texas and California.

However, with the constant improvements that are shown through software updates and the focus on new external hardware features in Tesla’s latest vehicles, it is certain that things will continue to trend in the right direction.

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Tesla is in talks with Austin, Texas officials about rolling out early pilot programs for its self-driving robotaxis as early as next year, as reported by Bloomberg earlier this month, and echoing CEO Elon Musk’s previous aims to launch commercial robotaxis in 2025. As detailed in emails acquired by the publication through public record requests, a Tesla employee has already been discussing the deployment of such fleets since at least May, though the company has also been considering pilot deployment in other Texas cities.

“Tesla is still working to strategically find a city within Texas to deploy… The city of Austin is obviously on our roadmap, but has not yet been decided where we will deploy first as we have many options available,” wrote an employee in one email from November.

The report also said that Tesla reached out to the city of Austin ahead of its October 10 “We, Robot” event, during which it unveiled the Cybercab, and the employee expressed hopes to meet safety expectations in the city of Austin, along with training first responders on how to interact with autonomous vehicles.

Earlier this month, Tesla held an event at its Gigafactory in Austin to help train first responders on its autonomous vehicle technology, though the employee said it wouldn’t yet be used on public roads and would let officials know of any changes to that.

Tesla’s initial ride-hailing pilots could also target California, with internal tests already underway

During the company’s Q3 earnings call in October, Elon Musk also said that employees in the Bay Area, California were already testing ride-hailing services internally. Using the company’s development app, Tesla employees can already request rides and be taken to anywhere in the Bay, according to the CEO.

Both Texas and California cities make sense for Tesla’s initial rollout of commercial robotaxi services, especially given that Musk also said the company aims to debut ride-hailing services and “Unsupervised” Full Self-Driving (FSD) approval in both of these states in 2025, dependent upon regulatory approval. Musk also said that the current internal ride-hailing tests in the Bay Area utilize safety drivers initially, though it isn’t required to do so.

Watch Tesla’s FSD v13.2 navigate away from park in a tricky situation

READ MORE: Tesla is ramping its Cybercab testing sessions at Giga Texas

Earlier this month, a Deutsche Bank report noted that Head of Investor Relations Travis Axelrod said also said Tesla plans to utilize teleoperation during initial rollout of autonomous ride-hailing efforts, as a safety and redundancy measure. This will likely play a role wherever the company first deploys commercial ride-hailing efforts.

Tesla also teased a ride-hailing mobile app in its Q1 Shareholder Deck earlier this year, showing a summon button to order ride-hails, an estimated wait time, climate controls for during the ride, navigation details, and even the ability to select and cycle through music or other media options.

Credit: Tesla

The mobile app avatar showed a Model Y, highlighting the ability for Tesla’s other vehicles to be eligible for ride-hailing operations through the Supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) program, which is available to any owner who purchases the software through a subscription or one-time purchase.

Tesla Cybercab, Waymo and commercial robotaxis

We also learned in October that the Cybercab features a large touchscreen, in addition to excluding a steering wheel or pedals. You can catch our first ride in the Cybercab below, as captured during Tesla’s October 10 “We, Robot” event in Southern California.

?: Our FULL first ride in the @Tesla Cybercab pic.twitter.com/6gR7OgKRCz

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 11, 2024

Both Texas and California make sense as locations Tesla would deploy early ride-hailing services, especially given its Fremont factory, Palo Alto engineering headquarters, and its competitor Waymo, which already operates paid driverless ride-hailing in San Francisco and Los Angeles.

Although Tesla isn’t expected to enter production with the Cybercab until 2026, the company’s other vehicles could be used to operate commercial self-driving at some point, though it also faces multiple competitors aiming to deploy these services.

Meanwhile, Waymo, the commercial robotaxi company backed by Google parent company Alphabet, has already been operating paid driverless ride-hailing in San Francisco since last year, and it has expanded services to Los Angeles, and Phoenix, Arizona throughout this year. This week, the company said it’s now giving over 150,000 paid driverless rides per week.

Amazon owns the driverless ride-hailing company Zoox, which has recently also gained some ground in deploying commercial self-driving ride-hailing vehicles in the Bay Area.

With General Motors (GM) recently announcing the end of its self-driving arm Cruise, one less future competitor remains for Tesla in the commercial robotaxi space. Musk joining the administration of incoming President Donald Trump is also widely expected to accelerate regulation efforts in the rollout of self-driving technology, though the urgency of the emerging market is quickly becoming clearer.

Still, Musk and Tesla supporters have argued that the company’s FSD will be more scalable than companies like Waymo utilizing geo-mapping efforts, due to its AI neural network model being trained on video footage from real-time drivers across the company’s ownership network. With added safety measures like teleoperation and safety drivers in its early rollout of commercial robotaxi services, Tesla may yet be able to gain enough public and regulatory trust to start deploying these services in the coming months.

What are your thoughts? Let me know at zach@teslarati.com, find me on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send us tips at tips@teslarati.com.

Waymo leads robotaxi industry, at least for now

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Waymo is not resting on its laurels. A $5.6 billion investment from Alphabet, and a strategic partnership with Geely for custom vehicles, among other things, signal plans for further growth. The company also intends to expand to Austin, Atlanta, and even internationally into Tokyo, as noted in a CNBC report.

The Competition:

While Waymo is the runaway leader in robotaxis for now, the company is poised to meet some substantial competition.

• Tesla’s Ambition: Elon Musk’s Tesla, despite a history of missed deadlines, has made its robotaxi intentions very clear during the unveiling of the Cybercab and Robovan in October. While still without a commercial service, Tesla aims to leverage its existing vehicle fleet, like the Model Y and Model 3, for robotaxi operations, pending regulatory approval.
• Zoox’s Niche: Amazon’s Zoox, with its distinctive “toaster”-shaped shuttle, has made inroads by securing permits for public rides and expanding testing environments to include night and light rain conditions. Although not at Waymo’s scale, Zoox’s unique design and targeted expansion plan in cities like Las Vegas and San Francisco suggest that it could be a serious robotaxi player.
• The Cruise Conundrum: General Motors’ decision to close its Cruise robotaxi division, after investing $10 billion, underscores the challenges in this space. However, GM has noted that it will now focus on the development of “personal autonomous vehicles” instead of robotaxis.

The Market Dynamics:

• The global ride-sharing market, estimated at $123.08 billion in 2024, is projected to reach $480.09 billion by 2032, as per research from Fortune Business Insights.
• That’s a very lucrative market that is just waiting to be disrupted by autonomous robotaxi services.

The Bottom Line:

• Waymo’s lead in the robotaxi industry is clear, with tangible progress in service availability and technological adaptation.
• However, Tesla’s large fleet and scalability and Zoox’s Amazon backing signal that the race is on. As Tesla works to turn its vision into reality and Zoox expands its footprint, Waymo’s lead might be challenged in the coming years.

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According to a Reuters Breakingviews prediction report on Monday, Trump’s moves to minimize regulations surrounding autonomous vehicles and create a federal framework for the technology are expected to supercharge the industry—as increased competition emerges in the U.S. and beyond.

With Tesla CEO Elon Musk also set to play a large role in Trump’s administration, heading up the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the company’s own developments in the sector could also stand to benefit substantially. Reuters also predicts that self-driving pilots could expand under the administration, especially as developers aim to increase the amount of data used to train their systems.

READ MORE ON SELF-DRIVING REGULATIONS: U.S. agency proposes rules for self-driving vehicle incident reporting

Last month, the Trump transition team said that it was already aiming to create a federal self-driving vehicle framework. Additionally, the team earlier this month was reported to be ditching federal requirements on automated driving tech crash reporting, coming as one example of the administration’s aims to streamline regulatory processes in the industry.

Internationally, the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) categorizes vehicle automation into five automation levels, which are generally adopted in conversations about robotaxis in the U.S. market as well. You can see these categories below, with Level 3 and above generally considered to be full automation, at least at times, while Level 2 and below are considered partial automation.

Credit: SAE International

According to the data firm Canalys, just 5.5 percent of vehicles sold this year have included Level 2 or more assistance features, such as cruise control and automated lane changes. By 2025, however, Citi research has suggested that models in China below 200,000 yuan (about $28,000) will have these features, playing a major role in consumer demand.

In China, at least 19 companies are currently testing fully autonomous vehicles, and Goldman Sachs expects the country to see as many as 90 percent of consumer sales to have features of Level 3 autonomy or greaterby 2040, compared to just 65 percent in the U.S.

While these technologies are emerging, McKinsey predicts that self-driving could become a $400 billion industry by 2035. Google parent company Alphabet runs Waymo, a Level 4 driverless ride-hailing service that already offers paid rides, while others, including Pony AI and Baidu also offer rentable self-driving vehicles in select areas.

BYD has invested $14 billion into self-driving, Toyota has around 1.7 trillion yen ($11.3 billion) going toward software, while Volkswagen has invested $700 million into China’s Xpeng Motors. Li Auto and Xiami are also considered potential competitors in these spaces, and 2025 could prove a big year for commercial self-driving hopefuls.

Tesla’s Supervised FSD program, Cybercab unveiled

Meanwhile, Tesla isn’t yet operating a paid ride-hailing service, though it gathers data through owner use of its Supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) software. Tesla has touted the potential scalability of its Supervised FSD in the past, given that it’s available at least in some form in all of the company’s vehicles.

Musk has also regularly talked about a future in which owners of its vehicles could use an Unsupervised FSD to generate money by giving robotaxi rides while not normally in use.

On that theme, Tesla unveiled the Cybercab in October, a fully autonomous, two-seat vehicle with no pedals, set to eventually make it to the market as a driverless ride-hailing vehicle. It’s also set to be equipped with wireless charging and make use of an automated cleaning robot, offering top-to-bottom autonomy for owners.

MORE ON FSD SUPERVISED: Watch Tesla’s FSD v13.2 navigate away from park in a tricky situation

Tesla skeptics, Waymo’s driverless ride-hails, GM’s Cruise drives into the sunset

Despite the unveiling, some have shared skepticism around how long the vehicles could take to reach the market, especially given that production isn’t set to begin until 2026 with commercial deliveries aiming for “before 2027,” according to Musk during the October 10 “We, Robot” unveiling event.

On Monday, analyst Gary Black also predicted that fewer than 50 percent of Tesla owners would join the company’s robotaxi fleet, while a Guggenheim researcher in October said Tesla was “extremely unlikely” to reveal a credible path to robotaxi commercialization in the next 12 to 24 months.

Others like Waymo are some of the first companies operating paid driverless ride-hails, and the Google-run firm said in August that its robotaxis were already giving 100,000 paid self-driving rides per week. Meanwhile, General Motors (GM) announced this month that it will officially end funding for its commercial self-driving arm Cruise, after one of the company’s driverless vehicles last year ran over and pinned a pedestrian in San Francisco.

ALSO RELATED:

• Tesla China FSD approval expected by end of 2024: Musk
• Waymo to test self-driving vehicles in another country in 2025

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