On Friday, Musk wrote on X that SpaceX’s reusable Starship rocket will take Optimus to Mars at the end of 2026, with human landings expected to commence a few years later.

“Starship departs for Mars at the end of next year, carrying Optimus,” Musk said. “If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.”

Hold on

— Tesla Optimus (@Tesla_Optimus) March 15, 2025

Last year, the SpaceX and Tesla head also said he expected that SpaceX would be able to begin uncrewed launches in 2016, with early launches including both Optimus and a Cybertruck unit.

Musk also followed up the announcement with a post on X on Saturday morning, noting that he expects SpaceX to launch more than 90 percent of Earth’s payload mass to orbit this year. Meanwhile, he says China will make up just around 5 percent, while the rest of the world, including other parts of America, would also make up just 5 percent.

He also predicted that the number would go up even further to nearly 100 percent, once SpaceX’s reusable rocket is being launched more frequently.

“When Starship is launching at high rate, SpaceX will probably carry >99 percent of Earth’s payload mass to orbit. This is necessary to make Mars a self-sustaining civilization,” Musk added.

READ MORE ABOUT SPACEX’S STARSHIP: Texas awards SpaceX $17.3M grant to expand Bastrop tech hub

To be sure, Musk has been known to make ambitious claims about when his companies’ products would achieve certain milestones. For example, Musk predicted in 2018 that SpaceX could launch a rocket to Mars with humans aboard by 2024, though SpaceX only began testing the company’s reusable Starship in 2023.

Still, the company has been routinely testing Starship since then, and with increasing frequency, and in October, SpaceX performed the first catch of the Starship’s Super Heavy booster after liftoff to demonstrate the concept that a reusable rocket could be possible. In a launch earlier this month, SpaceX again successfully caught the Super Heavy Booster, though it lost the upper stage to a “rapid unscheduled disassembly,” effectively meaning that it had exploded in air and showered surrounding areas with rocket parts.

The explosion was the second consecutive launch in which debris from Starship reigned down, highlighting the continued importance of testing as SpaceX aims to make the rocket a viable product for reusable space travel.

On Friday, SpaceX also launched its Crew Dragon spacecraft to the International Space Station (ISS) to rescue astronauts that have been stuck on the orbital craft, after a Boeing Starliner craft was originally intended to bring them back to Earth. While SpaceX attempted to rescue the two astronauts in September, issues with the Crew Dragon craft’s thrusters discovered upon arrival made NASA hold off on approving the return mission.

Update 3/16/25: Edited final paragraph after incorrectly saying that Starliner had been a SpaceX craft, rather than one owned by Boeing.

SpaceX completes a new first with recent Falcon 9 launch

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Flight 8 ended with mixed results as the Starship upper stage experienced a rapid unscheduled disassembly during its ascent burn. The Super Heavy booster, however, returned successfully to Starbase’s launch tower.

Super Heavy Booster Achieves 3rd Successful Catch

The Super Heavy booster, designated Booster 15, roared to life at launch, propelling the 400-foot-tall Starship stack skyward. Less than three minutes after liftoff, it separated cleanly from the upper stage and began its descent back to Starbase. 

The booster executed a pinpoint landing, getting caught midair by the launch tower’s massive “chopstick” arms. This marked the third test flight where SpaceX was able to successfully recover a Super Heavy booster, a critical step toward reducing costs by reusing the rocket’s first stage. 

The crowd at South Padre Island, watching from across the water, erupted in cheers as the Super Heavy booster settled into the tower’s grasp.

Starship Upper Stage Lost

The mission’s upper stage, known as Ship 34, faced a starkly different fate. Intended to deploy four mock Starlink satellites and splash down in the ocean about 66 minutes after launch, the spacecraft encountered trouble during its ascent. 

Videos posted on social media platform X showed Ship 34 disintegrating during its flight, echoing Flight 7’s upper-stage loss in January. SpaceX addressed the upper stage’s failure in a post on X. 

“During Starship’s ascent burn, the vehicle experienced a rapid unscheduled disassembly and contact was lost. Our team immediately began coordination with safety officials to implement pre-planned contingency responses. We will review the data from today’s flight test to better understand root cause. As always, success comes from what we learn, and today’s flight will offer additional lessons to improve Starship’s reliability,” SpaceX wrote in its post.

Watch SpaceX’s Starship Flight 8 livestream in the video below.

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Starship Flight 8 comes after SpaceX completed an investigation into the Starship upper stage’s loss during Flight 7.

Mission Targets

The upcoming mission will follow a suborbital trajectory, deploying four Starlink simulators that will burn up on reentry, as per a release from SpaceX. This also marks Starship’s first payload drop. A single Raptor engine relight in space is planned, alongside reentry experiments that should help pave the way for the Starship upper stage’s return and catch at the launch site in later missions. 

The Super Heavy booster will launch, execute a boostback burn, and attempt a catch by the tower’s chopsticks. If health checks on the booster or tower falter, or if the Flight Director withholds final approval, the booster will default to a trajectory for a soft splashdown in the Gulf of America. Sonic booms from the returning booster will be audible near the landing zone.

Starship's eighth flight test now targeting to launch as soon as Thursday, March 6 → https://t.co/alyJTRtOIP pic.twitter.com/3OORFZbSPT

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) March 5, 2025

Improvements to Starship and Super Heavy

As noted by SpaceX, Starship’s forward flaps have been redesigned to reduce reentry heat exposure and simplify mechanisms. The Starship upper stage’s propulsion system has also gained a 25% propellant volume boost for longer flights. 

SpaceX has removed a number of tiles from Starship to stress-test vulnerable spots across the vehicle. The reentry profile is designed to intentionally stress the structural limits of the upper stage’s rear flaps while at the point of maximum entry dynamic pressure as well.

The Super Heavy booster, on the other hand, features upgraded avionics, a more powerful flight computer, enhanced power and network distribution, and integrated smart batteries.

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On January 16, SpaceX successfully launched Starship while also completing its second successful catch of the lower-stage booster.

However, the flight did not go as smoothly as initially anticipated, as the company lost Starship’s upper stage roughly eight minutes and twenty seconds into flight.

Now, the company is clarifying what happened that led to the demise of the upper stage, which SpaceX has identified with the recognition of “flashes” that occurred after vehicle separation.

SpaceX completes second catch of lower stage, but loses Starship

SpaceX says that a flash was observed roughly two minutes into its burn after vehicle separation. The flash, along with sensors that was a pressure rise in the attic, indicated a leak:

“Approximately two minutes into its burn, a flash was observed in the aft section of the vehicle near one of the Raptor vacuum engines. This aft section, commonly referred to as the attic, is an unpressurized area between the bottom of the liquid oxygen tank and the aft heatshield. Sensors in the attic detected a pressure rise indicative of a leak after the flash was seen.”

This was not the only flash that was observed. Two minutes after the first, another flash was seen, but this one was followed by sustained fires in the attic. These fires caused Starship’s engines to perform a controlled shutdown:

“These eventually caused all but one of Starship’s engines to execute controlled shut down sequences and ultimately led to a loss of communication with the ship. Telemetry from the vehicle was last received just over eight minutes and 20 seconds into flight.”

SpaceX clarified that Starship was destroyed and communication with the ship was lost before it was able to initiate any destruct rules for its Autonomous Flight Safety System. The company said this was “fully healthy when communication was lost.”

It went on to say that the “most probable root cause” of the loss was likely due to an environment not seen during testing:

“The most probable root cause for the loss of ship was identified as a harmonic response several times stronger in flight than had been seen during testing, which led to increased stress on hardware in the propulsion system. The subsequent propellant leaks exceeded the venting capability of the ship’s attic area and resulted in sustained fires.”

Nevertheless, Starship will launch for the eighth time soon, with CEO Elon Musk noting that the most likely date will be Friday. This could be the second of potentially 25 Starship launches planned for 2025.

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SpaceX has listed its launch window as starting on Wednesday, February 26, at 5:30 p.m. EST. The company will look to launch between then and on any of the various backup opportunities that will be available through Thursday, March 6.

Coming off of what is one of its most eventful missions yet with the seventh Starship launch, the company is going to look to improve in one facet while aiming to repeat another. First, SpaceX said it is aiming to complete yet another catch of the first-stage booster, something it has now accomplished on two other occasions.

However, the last launch also resulted in the complete loss of the rocket itself, which was destroyed during its ascension phase. Debris from the exploded rocket fell over the Caribbean island of Turks and Caicos, lighting up the sky in what was a stunning display of a learning experience for the aerospace company:

?Absolutely insane video of Starship coming down over Turks & Caicospic.twitter.com/28wfgdKJuN

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 16, 2025

The only thing that would potentially delay Starship’s next launch is the lack of closure to the previous investigation, which dealt with finding the reasoning for the rocket’s explosion.

SpaceX aimed to explain what happened shortly after the destruction of Starship after the seventh test flight:

“Following stage separation, the Starship upper stage successfully lit all six Raptor engines and performed its ascent burn to space. Prior to the burn’s completion, telemetry was lost with the vehicle after approximately eight and a half minutes of flight. Initial data indicates a fire developed in the aft section of the ship, leading to a rapid unscheduled disassembly with debris falling into the Atlantic Ocean within the predefined hazard areas.”

Musk also said that a leak of oxygen or fuel in the cavity above the ship engine firewall could have been responsible for the loss.

He also expected Starship to return to launch in February.

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Starship was lost during its ascension, and debris rained down over the Caribbean less than an hour after SpaceX lost all communication with the spacecraft.

A few hours after the launch was over, SpaceX started to shed some light after looking at preliminary data that the rocket left behind.

The company said that a fire developed in the aft section of Starship:

“Following stage separation, the Starship upper stage successfully lit all six Raptor engines and performed its ascent burn to space. Prior to the burn’s completion, telemetry was lost with the vehicle after approximately eight and a half minutes of flight. Initial data indicates a fire developed in the aft section of the ship, leading to a rapid unscheduled disassembly with debris falling into the Atlantic Ocean within the predefined hazard areas.”

Additionally, Musk said that there was some sort of oxygen or fuel leak in the cavity above the ship engine firewall.

The leak was evidently large enough to build more pressure than the vent was able to handle:

?Elon Musk has also said an oxygen or fuel leak in the cavity above the ship engine firewall could be the cause of the anomaly. https://t.co/BgLkdA9Kk1

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 17, 2025

Some also seemed to recognize evidence of fires throughout the flight of Starship, which is obviously an anomaly:

Unconfirmed but what looks to be fire at the hinge of Starship’s flap. A potential RUD? We await as we get any confirmation from SpaceX.

They do not have comms with the spacecraft as this moment. pic.twitter.com/Cn1EF4AHpv

— Mihir Tripathy (@mihirneal) January 16, 2025

There will be more information regarding the loss of Starship in the coming days and weeks, but Musk already believes that a bit of fire suppression and more volume in the cavity above the ship engine firewall could fix the issue.

“Nothing so far suggests pushing next launch past next month,” he said, so Flight 8 could happen sometime in February.

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The launch took place just a few minutes after 5 p.m. on the East Coast, as the first attempts at getting Starship in the air for the seventh time were delayed by weather both last week and this week.

Conditions were favorable on Thursday as SpaceX looked to follow up a successful campaign by Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos’s company, earlier today.

SpaceX went into the seventh Starship launch with plans for a catch attempt of the first-stage booster, something it attempted and completed during the fifth test launch last year. It decided to skip a catch attempt with the sixth test flight as conditions were not aligned.

For now, SpaceX is extremely selective as to when it attempts catches.

However, it was successful during this attempt, its second completed catch:

? ? Here is @SpaceX’s full catch of the Lower Stage Booster from Starship Flight 7! pic.twitter.com/IXIRAGr1Md

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 16, 2025

This flight differed from previous launches as SpaceX rolled out several improvements to the rocket and the processes as it featured plans to do a Starlink deployment simulation and had various adjustments to flap placement and avionics.

These plans were disrupted by the fact that SpaceX lost all communications with Starship about ten minutes into the flight, which the aerospace company confirmed was a result of losing the spacecraft sometime during its ascent.

?? Telemetry on Starship has been lost. All comms with the ship have been lost, and SpaceX’s livestream says this is an “anomaly.”

“We are assuming the ship has been lost.” pic.twitter.com/fyyCNuXVRg

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 16, 2025

Although the catch was successful, the loss of the actual rocket seemed to be a huge damper on the entire event. SpaceX confirmed several minutes after the loss of communications that the rocket was destroyed and was lost.

It was its first failure since the second Starship launch in November 2023. SpaceX had no answers for why the rocket was destroyed and lost.

We will keep you updated in the coming days.

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The company is now targeting the launch for Monday, January 13, at 4 p.m. CST or 5 p.m. EST. The launch date is not set in stone as any variety of delays could impact this, but SpaceX hopes to finally take off after a delay that pushed it back from January 10.

? STARSHIP LAUNCH DATE: @SpaceX says Starship’s 7th test flight is now targeted for Monday, January 13 at 4pm CST

pic.twitter.com/N3sGklf6k4

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 8, 2025

What’s new with this Starship launch

With this being the seventh test launch of Starship, there are several things that the company will change and hope to accomplish. All of these launches are done in preparation for eventually taking flight to Mars, something that will happen next year, according to CEO Elon Musk.

First, SpaceX is rolling out a next-generation ship with “significant upgrades.” Forward flaps have been made smaller and are repositioned away from the heat shield, which will “reduce their exposure to reentry heating.”

SpaceX eyes 25 annual Starship launches starting next year

There is also a 25 percent increase in propellant volume, a new fuel feedline system for the Raptor vacuum engines, and a better-than-ever propulsion avionics module that will control the valves and reading sensors.

Avionics, as a whole, underwent a redesign and now have more capability and redundancy for missions as they become more complex.

Starlink test

SpaceX is also planning to deploy 10 Starlink simulators that are similar in size and weight to the next-generation Starlink satellites:

“While in space, Starship will deploy 10 Starlink simulators, similar in size and weight to next-generation Starlink satellites as the first exercise of a satellite deploy mission. The Starlink simulators will be on the same suborbital trajectory as Starship, with splashdown targeted in the Indian Ocean. A relight of a single Raptor engine while in space is also planned.”

Ship return and catch

There will be several experiments that have to do with returning Starship and various catch scenarios and sequences. One of which will see “a significant number of tiles be removed to stress-test vulnerable areas across the vehicle.”

The ship’s reentry profile was also intentionally designed to test the structural limits of the flaps while at the point of maximum dynamic pressure during reentry.

Currently, SpaceX did not detail whether it would attempt another catch during this test launch. These are usually game-time decisions.

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During a livestream on X on Tuesday, Musk said that Starship’s seventh launch would be delayed “three or four days,” noting that it would now be set for “probably sometime next week.” The update comes after SpaceX was originally aiming to launch Starship for its seventh flight on Friday, after the company launched the craft a sixth time in November, and as the company aims to significantly increase launches this year.

SpaceX has been holding a backup window for the launch running through January 16, so we could see it rescheduled for anytime between Monday and Thursday next week.

READ MORE ON SPACEX: SpaceX discusses $1.6B Starlink deal with Italian government

Crucially, the seventh launch is also set to be the first time SpaceX has attempted to deploy a payload using Starship, with the company aiming to deploy as many as 10 Starlink simulators as part of testing to evaluate the reusable ship’s deployment capabilities. The Starship will also be aiming to splashdown in the Indian Ocean, instead of catching the vessel with the so-called “Mechazilla” arm.

Following its last launch, SpaceX told the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) that it was looking to gain approval to launch Starship as many as 25 times per year.

During its sixth flight of Starship, SpaceX cancelled plans to catch the rocket, following a successful splashdown of the Super Heavy booster in the Gulf of Mexico. The company later reiterated that having a “faster and harder” catch of Super Heavy was its main goal, with Musk later adding that SpaceX is planning “one more ocean landing of the ship” before trying another catch. Prior to the flight, Musk outlined these four objectives for the test:

1. Restart of Raptor engines in vacuum.
2. Daylight landing of the ship.
3. Higher peak heating (steeper) reentry
4. Faster/harder booster catch.

What are your thoughts? Let me know at zach@teslarati.com, find me on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send us tips at tips@teslarati.com.

SpaceX to double the size of Starlink Bastrop production facility

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Starship launches are becoming more frequent now that SpaceX is moving quickly toward both unmanned and manned missions to Mars in the coming years. This year, SpaceX launched Starship four times.

That number will increase significantly, according to new documents from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

SpaceX currently has permission to launch five times per year from Starbase in Texas, but a revised draft of the Environmental Assessment for Increased Cadence of Starship and Super Heavy states the figure is moving upward.

This would bring 50 total landings, 25 of Starship and 25 of Super Heavy, with 25 total launches starting next year.

The FAA said in its proposed action:

“The FAA’s federal action is to modify SpaceX’s existing vehicle operator license to authorize SpaceX’s proposed action to increase the cadence of the Starship/Super Heavy launch program (see Section 1.1) at the Boca Chica vertical launch area (VLA) in Cameron County, Texas to up to 25 annual launches and 50 total annual landings (25 of the Starship and 25 of the Super Heavy), and make vehicle and operational upgrades.”

The FAA is also preparing for 22 daytime launches and up to three nighttime launches next year.

This would be a major acceleration in the cadence of SpaceX’s launches and would make Starship launches a much more frequent occurrence than previously. SpaceX recently had roughly a month between their last two Starship launches.

SpaceX successfully launches sixth Starship test flight with no catch

We would see two per month if SpaceX and the FAA are able to bring approval to the newly revised plan.

Landings would be different as well. Currently, only 10 Starship landings and five Super Heavy landings are permitted each year. These would both be boosted up to 25.

SpaceX plans to land both Super Heavy and Starship back on land or on floating platforms, like the droneships it employs for the Starlink launches. However, hard water landings, soft water landings, and in-flight breakups are always possible.

Nevertheless, SpaceX says it anticipates no more than 20 of these events for each vehicle for the life of the program. “These scenarios would occur within the first five years of the program,” the FAA said.

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