Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave a nod of appreciation for the Tesla Board member in a post on social media.

The TSLA Purchase

As could be seen in a Form 4 submitted to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday, Gebbia purchased about $1.02 million worth of TSLA stock. This was comprised of 4,000 TSLA shares at an average price of $256.308 per share.

Interestingly enough, Gebbia’s purchase represents the first time an insider has purchased TSLA stock in about five years. CEO Elon Musk, in response to a post on social media platform X about the Tesla Board member’s TSLA purchase, gave a nod of appreciation for Gebbia. “Joe rocks,” Musk wrote in his post on X.

Gebbia has served on Tesla’s Board as an independent director since 2022, and he is also a known friend of Elon Musk. He even joined the Trump Administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to help the government optimize its processes.

Just a Few Weeks Before Robotaxi

The timing of Gebbia’s TSLA stock purchase is quite interesting as the company is expected to launch a dedicated roboatxi service this June in Austin. A recent report from Insider, citing sources reportedly familiar with the matter, claimed that Tesla currently has 300 test operators driving robotaxis around Austin city streets. The publication’s sources also noted that Tesla has an internal deadline of June 1 for the robotaxi service’s rollout, but even a launch near the end of the month would be impressive.

During the Q1 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk explained that the robotaxi service that would be launched in June will feature autonomous rides in Model Y units. He also noted that the robotaxi service would see an expansion to other cities by the end of 2025. “The Teslas that will be fully autonomous in June in Austin are probably Model Ys. So, that is currently on track to be able to do paid rides fully autonomously in Austin in June and then to be in many other cities in the US by the end of this year,” Musk stated. 

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Tesla slightly addressed whether or not it will be pushing forward with the debut of new models later this year in its latest earnings call. The company’s product development executive, Lars Moravy, shared some details about Tesla’s design process and the upcoming affordable models.

“We’re still planning to release models this year. As with all launches, we’re working through, like, the last minute issues that pop up. We’re knocking them down one by one. At this point, I would say that the ramp might be a little slower than we had hoped initially…But there’s nothing that’s blocking us from starting production within the next, within the timeline laid out in the opening remarks.

“And I will say it’s important to emphasize that, as we’ve said all along, the full utilization of our factories is the primary goal for these new products. And so the flexibility of what we can do within the form factor and, you know, the design of it is really limited to what we can do on our existing lines rather than building new ones. But we’ve been targeting the low cost of ownership. Monthly payment is the biggest differentiator for our vehicles, and that’s why we’re focused on bringing these new models with the, you know, the lowest price, to the market, within the constraints I just highlighted.”

The Model 3 is a hell of a deal, ngl. With the federal tax credit, it'd be silly to get a comparably priced combustion-powered car.

Now for the big question. Is the Model 3 currently the best-looking Tesla? https://t.co/5E37J9OKhU

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 24, 2025

In January, Tesla’s Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja teased several new product introductions for this year. There is at least one product that most Tesla supporters and investors are hoping to see: the company’s affordable vehicles, which have been dubbed by the EV community as the “Model 2” or “Model Q.”

Before Tesla’s Robotaxi event last year, many speculated that the company would also unveil its affordable next-gen vehicle. Gene Munster from Deepwater had expected Tesla to release a stripped-down version of the Model 3 as its affordable vehicle during the Robotaxi event. In the end, Tesla unveiled its Robotaxi vehicle and its Robovan design.

It’s been a while since the Robotaxi event, and Tesla has kept mum about its affordable vehicle. Considering its Q1 2025 performance, TSLA investors look forward to catalysts that could boost the stock.

The “Model 2” has been labeled a potential catalyst for Tesla. As such, TSLA investors and supporters have been itching for news about the new affordable vehicle. The main questions surrounding the “Model 2” revolve around its design and price. Based on Moravy’s statement, the “Model 2’s” design will heavily depend on Tesla’s current assembly lines and supply chain structures.

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Tesla gained Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter’s confidence following its Q1 2025 earnings call. Piper Sandler reaffirmed its Overweight rating and $400 TSLA price target, signaling optimism for the company’s robotaxi and affordable vehicle launches expected this year. The firm’s stance reflects Tesla’s resilience amid market challenges.

Despite expectations of weak Q1 financials, Tesla’s stock edged up in after-hours trading, defying skepticism. Piper Sandler’s Alexander Potter noted that the results met the hopes of Tesla supporters, particularly as the company held firm on its timelines. Potter emphasized that anticipation for robotaxi details and new vehicle launches should keep critics at bay, supporting the $400 target.

“In our preview last week, we predicted that (at best) Q1 would be a non-event. With the stock trading up slightly in the after-hours session, it appears our best-case scenario has materialized. Considering generally weak Q1 financials, we think this is the best result that TSLA bulls could’ve reasonably hoped for.

“In our view, the most important Q1 takeaway is this: Tesla didn’t hedge expectations re: launching Robotaxis or lower-priced vehicles in 1H25. With <2 months until the end of June, investors can look forward to some interesting catalysts in the weeks ahead. In our view, this alone should be enough to keep the bears at bay, at least until we have a better idea re: the details of Tesla’s new products, as well as the scale/scope of the Robotaxi launch,” wrote Potter.

Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives, a longtime TSLA bull, echoed Potter’s optimism for Tesla. Ives raised his price target for Tesla stock from $315 to $350 with a BUY rating. His Tesla upgrade came after Elon Musk’s announcement during the Q1 earnings call that he would reduce his involvement with DOGE, signaling a sharper focus on Tesla.

Tesla’s steady Q1 performance and unwavering commitment to its 2025 roadmap, including the Robotaxi launch and lower-priced models, bolster investor confidence. Piper Sandler’s analysis underscores Tesla’s ability to navigate a competitive electric vehicle market while advancing its technological edge. The upcoming Robotaxi launch and affordable vehicle introductions are pivotal, with analysts expecting these initiatives to drive stock value through 2025.

As Tesla prepares for these milestones, its stock movement reflects market trust in Musk’s vision. With Piper Sandler and Wedbush reaffirming bullish outlooks, Tesla’s strategic moves will remain under close scrutiny, positioning the company to capitalize on its innovation pipeline in a dynamic industry landscape.

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Tesla’s Q1 2025 Results: 

• Total Revenues: $19.3 billion
• Total automotive revenues: $13.967 billion
• Total GAAP gross margin: 16.3%
• Gross Profit: $3.15 billion
• EPS non-GAAP: $0.27 per share
• Free cash flow: $664 million

The following are live updates from Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings call. I will be updating this article in real time, so please keep refreshing the page to view the latest updates on this story.

16:20 CT – Hello, and happy earnings day to everyone! While Tesla missed the Street’s expectations, the stock has not shown its typical volatility at all. That being said, this earnings call is quite interesting due to the upcoming “Company Update.”

Tesla also reiterated its section about new vehicles that “remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025” in its Update Letter. What are these vehicles? Just variants of the Model 3 or Model Y? Was the Cybertruck LR RWD one of them already? Or are they actually new cars that we’ve just never seen before?

Either way, ten minutes and counting.

16:27 CT – Now I’m just curious if the Company Update will be a video. The thumbnail Tesla is using on X and YouTube shows an “Audio Webcast Only” graphic though. Three minutes and counting.

16:28 CT – And there’s the music. Wonder if it’s going to be on time.

16:34 CT – Annd we’re now on the Elon time threshold. Tesla stock is actually up 4% in after-hours today. Pretty nutty considering that the Q1 earnings are a miss.

16:36 CT – The earnings call is formally starting. Here we go.
Elon Musk takes the stage. “There’s never dull moment these days,” he said. He admits to the blowback from his work with DOGE. He also admitted that those against DOGE are bound to attack him and his companies, such as Tesla. Musk reiterates his belief that it’s important to fight waste and fraud. “I think it’s critical work,” Musk said.

16:40 CT – Musk discusses the protests against Tesla. He alleges that the protests are not organic. “The actual reason for the protests is that those who are receiving the waste and fraud want to continue receiving the waste and fraud,” he said.

Musk notes that starting next month, in May, his time allocation for DOGE will drop significantly. He will continue to spend a day or two on government matters or as long as the U.S. President wishes him to. “Starting next month, I will be allocating more of my time with Tesla,” Musk stated.

16:43 CT – Musk noted that Tesla is no stranger to challenges, but Tesla has been through the ringer several times in the past. “We’re not on the ragged edge of death….not even close,” he said.

He also highlighted that Tesla is on the cusp of autonomous cars and autonomous humanoid robots. Musk expects unexpected bumps this year, but he remains confident on the future of Tesla. The idea of Tesla potentially being the most valuable company in the world by far was reiterated. “Maybe as valuable than the next five companies combined,” he said. 

“We expect to be selling fully autonomous rides in June in August,” Musk stated. He also stated that autonomy in cars will affect the bottom line by mid-2026.

16:47 CT – Musk discusses Tesla’s supply chain, highlighting that Tesla is the least affected automaker by the Trump tariffs. That being said, Tesla has been working to localize its supply chains for years. He admitted that tariffs are tough on companies where the margins are so low. Musk also clarified that he continues to advocate for lower tariffs, but that’s all he can do. Trump has the decision.

“The tariff decision is entirely up to the President of the United States. I will weigh in on the decision, but its primarily up to the President. I continue to advocate for lower tariffs rather than higher tariffs,” Musk said.

16:50 CT – Musk noted that he would now explain why he is very excited for Tesla’s future. He noted that Tesla is laser-focused on bringing autonomy in June in Austin, Texas. He highlights Tesla’s general approach to autonomy. 

“We have a general solution (to autonomy) rather than a specific solution,” Musk said.

He also noted that Tesla expects to use thousands of Optimus robots in its factories this year. He expects Optimus’ ramp would be one of the fastest. By 2030, or 2029, a million Optimus per year is plausible.

16:52 CT – Musk highlighted that the Tesla Energy unit is doing very well. “We expect the stationary energy storage to scale to terawatts per year,” he said.

16:54 CT – Musk stated that Tesla chose to update the Model Y in Q1 because the first quarter tends to be the weakest. People do not usually buy a lot of cars in winter, after all. He highlighted that the Model Y is the world’s best-selling cars. 

“We picked Q1 to cut over to the production of the new Model Y…at the same time in factories across the world,” Musk stated, adding that, “In conclusion, while there are many headwinds, the future of Tesla is brighter than ever.”

He thanks the Tesla team and stated that he is looking forward to leading the team.

16:56 CT – Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja takes the stage. He explained the company’s reduced vehicle deliveries, which were caused by the changeover to the new Model Y across its factories. He also noted that the negative effects of vandalism and unwarranted hostility towards Tesla and its staff affected sales in some areas.

The CFO noted that even with these challenges, Tesla was able to sell out legacy Model Y in Q1. “We have an extremely competitive vehicle lineup and after that we have FSD,” he said.

17:03 CT – Taneja noted that the Powerwall 3 has been received well by customers and Tesla is currently supply constrained.

He also discusses the effects of tariffs, though he highlighted that Tesla is a very American automaker. Tesla is not immune to the tariffs, but the company could navigate the challenging landscape better than other automakers. That said, Tesla’s US lineup complies with USMCA by 85%. The company is working on non-China battery suppliers as well.

17:06 CT – Say Questions begin. First up is a question about the highest risk items on the critical path to robotaxi launch and scaling. Elon stated that robotaxis in June in Austin will be comprised of a Model Y fleet.

“Teslas that will be fully autonomous in Austin will be Model Ys,” Musk said, adding that Tesla’s paid autonomous rides will be coming to other cities later this year. “I predict there will be millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously in the second half of next year [in the US].”

Musk did state that there will be some localized parameters for Tesla’s paid autonomous rides in different regions, like snowy areas. A good driver in California won’t be as good in the middle of a blizzard in winter, after all.

17:09 CT – Ashok Elluswamy, VP of Autopilot/AI Software at Tesla, noted that localized parameters still follow Tesla’s general approach to autonomous cars. He also highlighted that validation is still critical for robotaxi operations. In Tesla’s factories today alone, there could be many days without interventions, making it hard to figure out if FSD Unsupervised is working as intended.

Musk and Taneja joked that Tesla customers in China are really pushing FSD to its limits. People in China “putting [FSD] to the real test,” Musk stated.

Cybercab is also in sample validation now, and it’s still scheduled for production next year.

17:12 CT – Another question is asked, this time about when FSD Unsupervised will be released. “Before the end of this year” in the United States, Musk stated, adding that FSD Unsupervised must be meaningfully safer than human drivers before it is released.

17:15 CT – A question about Tesla’s new cheaper models is asked, and if the company is focused on simplified versions to enhance affordability, similar to the RWD Cybertruck.

Tesla VP of Vehicle Engineering Lars Moravy noted that these cheaper vehicles are still on track. The ramp is slower than we hoped but nothing is blocking the company from initial production.

17:21 CT – Another question is asked, this time about how FSD Unsupervised will compete against Waymo’s offering, especially regarding pricing, geofencing and regulatory flexibility.

“The issue with Waymo’s cars is that it cost waayy more money,” Musk joked. He also stated that Teslas cost a quarter or 20% what a Waymo cost, and the company’s vehicles are made in large volume.

Musk predicts 99% market share for robotaxi unless other companies can deploy the same amount of vehicles on the roads as Tesla. “I don’t see anyone being able to compete with Tesla at present,” he stated.

By the end of the year Musk is confident that the Model Y will drive itself all the way to the customer autonomously from the factory.

17:25 CT – A question about the unboxed method and how that is progressing was also asked. Tesla notes that the company’s unboxed process is progressing. “You’ll see it on tests and roads in the coming months.” Tesla is also focused on improving the method, like marrying sub-assembly areas together. “This is a revolutionary production system,” Musk noted.

When describing the Cybercab line, Musk stated that “it will ultimately achieve a cycle time of 5 seconds or less.” So far, Tesla is fastest at 33 seconds in Giga Shanghai.

17:29 CT – A question about tariffs and political biases was asked. The executives noted that Tesla is very localized already. Localization for Tesla is 85% in North America and 95% in China. “We’re ridiculously vertically integrated,” Musk stated.

Tesla makes lithium, cathode and cells. Only thing left is the anode. Musk also stated that Tesla’s in-house cells are the most competitive.

17:34 CT – A question was asked if Tesla has battery supply constraints. Tesla executives noted that while tariffs pose a challenge, Tesla is prepared to face it. Tesla is also not battery constrained for vehicles.

17:36 CT – Another question was asked, this one about “brand damage.” Executives highlighted that Q1 was all about the new Model Y changeover, and the company is still dominating its segments. “Tesla is not immune to the macro demand for cars,” executives noted.

17:39 CT – A question is asked about Optimus’ production line. Musk noted that Optimus is still in development, so most of its production will be at the end of the year. He also noted that most things for Optimus production is new, so it’s ramp has its challenges.

Musk noted that Optimus is affected by the Trump administration’s tariffs against China since the humanoid robot uses robots from the country. Elon Musk also reiterated the idea that Tesla will produce 5,000 Optimus robots this year.

17:40 CT – Analyst questions begin. Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research discussed the market share of Tesla’s cars. Musk noted that “the reality is in the future most people aren’t going to buy cars.” The CEO recalled that when the iPhone came out, veteran phone makers like Nokia opted to continue making legacy products. Consumers, however, wanted the most intelligent product available.

17:43 CT – Emmanuel Rosner from Wolfe asked about the FSD and its required number of human interventions. What still needs to happen for FSD to be Unsupervised? Tesla noted that it is aware of aware of the interventions happening in public FSD, and the robotaxi service rolling out in a couple of months will be focused on key areas. “We really working through a long tail of unusual interventions,” Tesla executives noted.

When asked if Tesla will need remote operators, Tesla noted that the robotaxi service in Austin will use use them, but only if absolutely needed.

17:46 CT – Edison from Deutsche Bank asked how Optimus’ supply chain will look like. Musk noted that Tesla is focused on localization, especially considering geopolitical uncertainty. The analyst followed up with the number of robotaxis in Austin in June. Musk noted that Day 1, there will probably be 10 cars to observe.

17:49 CT – A Cannaccord analyst asked about FSD pricing. Tesla executives noted that people who bought FSD typically believe that FSD is too cheap, especially its monthly subscription. Granted, FSD is insistent that drivers pay attention to the road, which affects the pricing. But when FSD is already fully unsupervised, that monthly fee will feel very affordable.

When asked about the Indian market, Tesla explained that India is a very hard market because of its taxes.

17:53 CT – Colin Langan from Wells Fargo asked about Tesla’s vision based approach and how the company plans to get around issues like sun glare and dust. Musk noted that Tesla uses Direct Photon Counting to see clearly through fog, dust, and sun glare. With this, Teslas can drive directly facing the sun or in extremely dark environments.

The analyst asked if the affordable cars will just be a cheaper Model Y. In response, Lars Moravy noted that Tesla is using its existing lines, limiting the design of the cheaper model. The new cars will depend on existing lines, so least their form factor will be familiar.

17:57 CT – Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley asked about the Trump tariffs. Musk highlighted that he is just one of many advisers, and he does not make decisions. “I am an advocate for predictive tariff structures,” Musk noted.

As a follow up, Jonas asked if Musk believes the US or China is ahead in the development of AI humanoids and drones. Musk laughed and noted that it’s obvious which one is ahead in drones. America sadly cannot manufacture its own drones, and China holds a notable amount of the supply chain. Musk highlighted that US should not depend so much on China to make drones.

He noted that Tesla and SpaceX will be at the top of companies’ rankings, but he is apprehensive that ranks 1 through 10 will all be Chinese companies.

18:02 CT – And that wraps up Tesla’s Q1 Company Update and earnings call! Tesla really answered a lot of questions in this call, making it one of the longest Q&A sessions to date.

With that, till the next time, everyone!

Tesla’s livestream of its Q1 2025 Company Update and earnings call can be viewed below.

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Tesla Q1 2025 Deliveries

Tesla’s first quarter vehicle deliveries fell short of expectations, with the EV maker delivering a total of 336,681 vehicles, comprised of 323,800 Model 3/Y and 12,881 other models, worldwide. Vehicle production was at 362,615 units in the first quarter, comprised of 345,454 Model 3/Y and 17,161 other models.

Tesla Energy continued its momentum in Q1 2025, with the division deploying 10.4 GWh of energy storage products during the quarter.

What Wall Street Expects

As noted in a Forbes report, expectations are high that Tesla will report a gain of $0.35 per share on $21.85 billion in revenue, though whisper numbers suggest that the company will only post a gain of $0.31 per share. Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to see an EPS of $0.41 per share on revenues of $21.27 billion, as noted in an Investors’ Business Daily report.

Tesla’s Q1 2025 Results In a Nutshell

Following are highlights of Tesla’s Q1 2025 update Letter:

• Total Revenues: $19.3 billion
• Total automotive revenues: $13.967 billion
• Total GAAP gross margin: 16.3%
• Gross Profit: $3.15 billion
• EPS non-GAAP: $0.27 per share
• Free cash flow: $664 million

Key Updates: 

Tesla’s total revenue decreased 9% YoY to $19.3 billion YoY. This was due to a decline in vehicle deliveries, in part due to the new Model Y changeover and reduced vehicle average selling price (ASP), among other factors.

Tesla is still profitable, though operating income decreased 66% YoY to $0.4 billion. This also resulted in a a 2.1% operating margin. Tesla’s profitability in the first quarter was affected by reduced vehicle ASP, a decline in vehicle deliveries, and an increase in operating expenses driven by AI and other R&D projects partially offset by a decrease in SG&A, among other factors.

Tesla’s quarter-end cash, cash equivalents and investments stand at a healthy $37 billion. The sequential increase of $0.4 billion was primarily the result of positive free cash flow of $0.7 billion.

Below is Tesla’s first quarter 2025 Update Letter.

TSLA-Q1-2025-Update by Simon Alvarez

This article is being updated.

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At 4:30 p.m. Central Time / 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time, executives such as CEO Elon Musk will also be holding a Company Update and the Q1 2025 earnings call.

Tesla Q1 Deliveries and Production

Tesla missed estimates in the first quarter, with the company delivering a total of 336,681 vehicles worldwide. A total of 362,615 vehicles were also produced during this period.

While the delivery results of Tesla’s electric vehicle business were subpar in Q1 2025, the company’s energy division exhibited strong performance during the quarter, deploying a total of 10.4 GWh worth of energy storage products.

Earnings Estimates

As noted in a Forbes report, expectations are high that Tesla will report a gain of $0.35/share on $21.85 billion in revenue. Whisper numbers, however, reportedly suggest that the electric vehicle maker will only post a gain of $0.31 per share.

Analysts polled by FactSet, however, expect Tesla to see an EPS of $0.41 per share on revenues of $21.27 billion, as noted in an Investors’ Business Daily report.

Tesla Stock So Far

Tesla stock reached as high as $488.54 per share in 2024, though it is trading at around $240 per share as of writing. Tesla stock has been naturally volatile, however, so it is prone to notable moves depending on its Q1 earnings.

If the numbers are good, Tesla stock could easily gap up, but if they are disappointing, it would not be surprising if TSLA shares gap down.

FSD, New Vehicle Updates

Tesla is expected to launch a dedicated robotaxi service this June in Austin, Texas. The company has also been hinting at more affordable models that will be launched in the first half of 2025. Expectations are high that CEO Elon Musk will share some updates on these projects, particularly the rollout of Tesla’s FSD Unsupervised system.

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Although the company’s Earnings Calls have been primarily focused on the financials and accomplishments of the past quarter, Tesla is approaching this one differently.

Tesla has even said that this Earnings Call will feature a “company update,” and as most believe it will detail plans for future models and production timelines, others have different expectations and beliefs over what could be said.

Tesla still on track to release more affordable models in 1H25

Wedbush’s Dan Ives believes Tesla is at a crossroads and outlined his six biggest concerns for the company since CEO Elon Musk took on a role within the White House at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE):

1. Tesla has now unfortunately become a political symbol globally of the Trump Administration/DOGE
2. Tesla’s stock has been crushed since Trump stepped back into the White House
3. Brand damage to Musk/Tesla resulted in a terrible 1Q delivery number, with much lower 2025 deliveries on the horizon
4. Protests and violence against Tesla dealerships/owners have erupted around the globe
5. 25% auto tariffs have been enacted, delaying future lower-cost models for Tesla, even though Musk is vocally against the tariffs for obvious reasons
6. Potentially 15%-20% permanent demand destruction for future Tesla buyers due to the brand damage Musk has created with DOGE

Ives has held onto the idea that Musk’s involvement has made Tesla synonymous with the Trump administration, but that only seems to be true for those who share ideologies that oppose what the White House is doing.

Others are able to differentiate between the two, noting that Tesla is not a Trump organization, and vice versa.

Of course, there are negative sides to Musk splitting his time between the two and having ties to the President. Politically, it is hard to appease everyone.

Despite this, Wedbush’s Ives said the firm still remains bullish on Tesla:

“So why stay bullish? It’s a great question. We believe Tesla along with Nvidia are two of the most disruptive technology companies on the globe over the coming years. The unparalleled innovation, engineering scale, autonomous roadmap, and robotics future will unleash massive valuation upside over the coming years in our view. BUT….Musk needs to leave the government, take a major step back on DOGE, and get back to being CEO of Tesla full-time. Tesla is Musk and Musk is Tesla….and anyone that thinks the brand damage Musk has inflicted is not a real thing….spend some time speaking to car buyers in the US, Europe, and Asia…you will think differently after those discussions.”

Ives said that Musk needs to lay out the timing and rollout plans for the unsupervised Full Self-Driving and for the affordable vehicle platform, which was set for release in the first half of the year.

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Ives has a price target of $315 per share for the electric vehicle maker.

Best Positioned

During an interview with Yahoo Finance, the segment’s hosts asked about his thoughts on Tesla, especially considering Musk’s work with the Trump administration. Musk has previously stated that the effects of tariffs on Tesla are significant due to parts that are imported from abroad.

“When it comes to the tariff issue, they are actually best positioned relative to the Detroit Big Three and others and obviously foreign automakers. Still impacted, Musk has talked about that, in terms of just auto parts,” Ives stated.

China and Musk

Ives also stated that ultimately, a big factor for Tesla in the coming months may be the Chinese market’s reactions to its tariff war. He also noted that the next few quarters will be pivotal for Tesla considering the brand damage that Elon Musk has incited due to his politics and work with the Trump administration.

“When it comes to Tesla, I think the worry is where does retaliatory look like in China, in terms of buying domestic. I think that’s something that’s a play. And they have a pivotal six months head, in terms of what everything we see in Austin, autonomous, and the buildout. 

“But the brand issues that Musk self-inflicted is dealing with in terms of demand destruction in Europe and the US. And that’s why this is a key few quarters ahead for Tesla and also for Musk to make, in my opinion, the right decision to take a step back from the administration,” Ives noted.

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The CFRA analyst has given Tesla a price target of $360 per share.

Q1 A Low Point in Sales

The CFRA analyst stated that Tesla’s auto sales likely bottomed last quarter, as noted in an Insider Monkey report. This was, Nelson noted, due to Q1 typically being the “weakest quarter for automakers.” He also highlighted that all four of Tesla’s vehicle factories across the globe were idled in the first quarter.

While Nelson highlighted the company’s changeover to the new Model Y as a factor in Q1, he also acknowledged the effects of CEO Elon Musk’s politics. The analyst noted that while Tesla lost customers due to Musk’s political opinions, the electric vehicle maker has also gained some new customers in the process.

CFRA’s Optimistic Stance

Nelson also highlighted that Tesla’s battery storage business has been growing steadily over the years, ending its second-best quarter in Q1 2025. The analyst noted that Tesla Energy has higher margins than the company’s electric vehicle business, and Tesla itself has a very strong balance sheet.

The CFRA analyst also predicted that Tesla could gain market share in the United States because it has less exposure to the Trump administration’s tariffs. Teslas are the most American-made vehicles in the country, so the Trump tariffs’ effects on the company will likely be less notable compared to other automakers that produce their cars abroad.

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Cox Automotive’s findings were shared in a press release. 

March 2025 EV ATPs

As noted by Cox, new electric vehicle prices in March were estimated to be $59,205, a 7% increase year-over-year. In February, new EV prices had an ATP of $57,015. The average transaction price for electric vehicles was 24.7% higher than the overall auto industry ATP of $47,462.

As per Cox, “Compared to the overall industry ATP ($47,462), EV ATPs in March were higher by nearly 25% as the gap between new ICE and new EV grows wider. EV incentives continued to range far above the industry average. In March, the average incentive package for an EV was 13.3% of ATP, down from the revised 14.3% in February.”

Tesla ATPs in Focus

While Tesla saw challenges in the first quarter due to its factories’ changeover to the new Model Y, the company’s ATPs last month were estimated at $54,582, a year-over-year increase of 3.5% and a month-over-month increase of 4.5%. A potential factor in this could be the rollout of the Tesla Model Y Launch Series, a fully loaded, limited-edition variant of the revamped all-electric crossover that costs just under $60,000.

This increase, Cox noted, was evident in Tesla’s two best-selling vehicles, the Model 3 sedan and the Model Y crossover, the best-selling car globally in 2023 and 2024. “ATPs for Tesla’s two core models – Model 3 and Model Y – were higher month over month and year over year in March,” Cox wrote.

Cox’s Other Findings

Beyond electric vehicles, Cox also estimated that new vehicle ATPs held steady month-over-month and year-over-year in March at $47,462, down slightly from the revised-lower ATP of $47,577 in February. Sales incentives in March were flat compared to February at 7% of ATP, though they are 5% higher than 2024, when incentives were equal to 6.7% of ATP. 

Estimates also suggest that new vehicle sales in March topped 1.59 million units, the best volume month in almost four years. This was likely due to consumers purchasing cars before the Trump administration’s tariffs took effect. As per Erin Keating, an executive analyst at Cox, all things are pointing to higher vehicle prices this summer. 

“All signs point to higher prices this summer, as existing ‘pre-tariff’ inventory is sold down to be eventually replaced with ‘tariffed’ inventory. How high prices rise for consumers is still very much to be determined, as each automaker will handle the price puzzle differently. Should the White House posture hold, our team is expecting new vehicles directly impacted by the 25% tariff to see price increases in the range of 10-15%,” Keating stated.

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