News
Elon Musk says SpaceX could soon face bankruptcy – here’s why that’s unlikely
In a new leaked email, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that the company could go bankrupt if, by the end of 2022, it can’t achieve Starship and Starlink milestones that are by all practical appearances out of reach.
The news – first broken by SpaceExplored – comes about a week after CNBC reported that Musk was “shaking up” SpaceX’s leadership by effectively firing its vice president of propulsion due to “a lack of progress” in the development of Starship’s Raptor engine. Now, apparently after taking his first good look ‘under the hood’ in a while, Musk says that “the Raptor production crisis is much worse than it seemed a few weeks ago.” Worse, the CEO has implied that if it “can’t get enough reliable Raptors made [by the end of 2022]…[SpaceX will] face a genuine risk of bankruptcy.”
The email raises both skepticism and several major questions.
First and foremost, can there be any truth to Musk’s claim that SpaceX could go bankrupt because of an unspecified “Raptor production crisis [and disaster]?” Put simply, not really. Musk’s argument is simple enough. According to his estimations, the first-generation (V1) Starlink satellite internet constellation is “financially weak by itself,” which has led SpaceX to develop a much larger, more advanced second-generation (V2) Starlink satellite and constellation that the company’s existing “Falcon [rockets have] neither the [payload] volume nor mass to orbit” to launch. To efficiently launch the Starlink V2 constellation, then, Musk says SpaceX needs Starship to be operational.
Up to that point, nothing in Musk’s email implies that a “Raptor production crisis” could pose any serious harm to SpaceX beyond annoying delays. More than two years ago, Musk believed that Raptor V1.0 already cost less than $1M to produce. As of 2021, SpaceX (again per Musk) is completing an average of one Raptor engine every two days and currently has 35 functional engines installed on Starship and Super Heavy booster prototypes in Boca Chica, Texas. Already, at a rate of one engine every 48 hours, SpaceX’s Raptor production capabilities are theoretically strong enough to fully outfit a significant Starship fleet.
Both stages of Starship are designed to be rapidly and fully reusable and absolutely need to be to efficiently and rapidly launch SpaceX’s Starlink V2 constellation. In theory, a production capacity of ~180 Raptors per year should allow SpaceX to outfit a fleet of three Super Heavies (99 engines) and 13 Starships (72 engines). Even if Super Heavy booster reuse is initially no faster than Falcon (~1 launch per month) and Starship reuse is no faster than Dragon (~3 launches per year), that fleet would be able to launch at least 36 times per years. Even if SpaceX’s former propulsion executives somehow pulled the wool over Musk’s eyes, tricking him into seeing engines that just weren’t there and hiding hundreds of millions of dollars in secret cost overruns from the company’s own accountants, an annual run rate of 100 Raptor engines at a cost of $5 million each would still be able to power a fleet of six reusable ships and two boosters capable of ~20 launches per year.
Musk says that SpaceX will only face the risk of bankruptcy if it “cannot achieve a Starship flight rate of at least once every two weeks next year” – equivalent to 26 launches annually. Again, being deceived for years would be a terrible look but nothing described above appears to have any chance of bankrupting SpaceX. However, the CEO also says that SpaceX “is spooling up” one or several factories to produce “several million” Starlink user terminals (dishes) per year in a process that “will consume massive capital [and assumes] that [Starlink V2 satellites] will be on orbit to handle the bandwidth demand.” He even goes as far as to say that those millions of terminals “will be useless otherwise.”
Once again, while what he describes is an undeniable hurdle for SpaceX, the company is making a choice to “consume massive capital” to “spool up” Starlink dish factories before the constellation capacity needed to take advantage of those dishes has been secured. SpaceX doesn’t need to make such a massive investment so quickly when it could instead split that money with Starship, ensure that Starship and Raptor and Starlink V2.0 satellites are ready or close to ready for routine launches, and then invest heavily in dish production.
For example, just this month, SpaceX raised almost $350M from investors that have a practically bottomless appetite for SpaceX investments. Combined, by the end of the year, SpaceX will have likely raised more than $2.3B in 2021 alone. Valued at more than $100 billion, the company could – as a last resort – feasibly raise double-digit billions in one fell swoop with an IPO. Put simply, the only way SpaceX could ever go bankrupt in the near term would be by consciously letting itself drown in a sea of life preservers.
This is not to say that SpaceX doesn’t have numerous massive challenges ahead of it, nor is it to say that its fundraising potential is truly limitless. Investors could eventually become disillusioned. It’s entirely possible that it will take SpaceX years longer than Musk expects to begin routine Starlink V2.0 launches with Starship. Environmental approvals alone could easily preclude more than five orbital Starship launches in 2022 and potentially prevent regular (i.e. biweekly) launches well into 2023. But the fact of the matter is that unless Elon Musk is telegraphing signs that the rest of the company’s finances are a house of cards, the odds of SpaceX actually going bankrupt anytime soon are vanishingly small. In reality, he’s likely just attempting to (for better or worse) instill some amount of fear and panic in SpaceX employees to encourage them to work more hours and take fewer days off.
Update: Musk has tweeted a brief public comment confirming that he believes bankruptcy is actually an unlikely – but not impossible – outcome for SpaceX.
If a severe global recession were to dry up capital availability / liquidity while SpaceX was losing billions on Starlink & Starship, then bankruptcy, while still unlikely, is not impossible.
GM & Chrysler went BK last recession.
“Only the paranoid survive.” – Grove— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 30, 2021
Investor's Corner
Tesla Board member and Airbnb co-founder loads up on TSLA ahead of robotaxi launch
Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave a nod of appreciation for the Tesla Board member’s purchase.
Tesla Board member and Airbnb Co-Founder Joe Gebbia has loaded up on TSLA stock (NASDAQ:TSLA). The Board member’s purchase comes just over a month before Tesla is expected to launch an initial robotaxi service in Austin, Texas.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave a nod of appreciation for the Tesla Board member in a post on social media.
The TSLA Purchase
As could be seen in a Form 4 submitted to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday, Gebbia purchased about $1.02 million worth of TSLA stock. This was comprised of 4,000 TSLA shares at an average price of $256.308 per share.
Interestingly enough, Gebbia’s purchase represents the first time an insider has purchased TSLA stock in about five years. CEO Elon Musk, in response to a post on social media platform X about the Tesla Board member’s TSLA purchase, gave a nod of appreciation for Gebbia. “Joe rocks,” Musk wrote in his post on X.
Gebbia has served on Tesla’s Board as an independent director since 2022, and he is also a known friend of Elon Musk. He even joined the Trump Administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to help the government optimize its processes.
Just a Few Weeks Before Robotaxi
The timing of Gebbia’s TSLA stock purchase is quite interesting as the company is expected to launch a dedicated roboatxi service this June in Austin. A recent report from Insider, citing sources reportedly familiar with the matter, claimed that Tesla currently has 300 test operators driving robotaxis around Austin city streets. The publication’s sources also noted that Tesla has an internal deadline of June 1 for the robotaxi service’s rollout, but even a launch near the end of the month would be impressive.
During the Q1 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk explained that the robotaxi service that would be launched in June will feature autonomous rides in Model Y units. He also noted that the robotaxi service would see an expansion to other cities by the end of 2025. “The Teslas that will be fully autonomous in June in Austin are probably Model Ys. So, that is currently on track to be able to do paid rides fully autonomously in Austin in June and then to be in many other cities in the US by the end of this year,” Musk stated.
News
Stellantis unveils solid-state battery for EVs
Stellantis validated solid state battery cells for EVs: ultra-dense, fast-charging, and AI-optimized. Launching demo fleet by 2026.
Stellantis N.V. and Factorial Energy have validated Factorial’s automotive-sized FEST® solid-state battery cells, a major milestone for next-generation electric vehicle (EV) batteries. The breakthrough positions Stellantis and Factorial to advance EV performance with lighter, more efficient batteries.
“Reaching this level of performance reflects the strengths of our collaboration with Factorial.
“This breakthrough puts us at the forefront of the solid-state revolution, but we are not stopping there. We continue working together to push the boundaries and deliver even more advanced solutions, bringing us closer to lighter, more efficient batteries that reduce costs for our customers,” said Ned Curic, Stellanti’s Chief Engineering and Technology Officer.
The 77Ah FEST® cells achieved an energy density of 375Wh/kg, supporting over 600 cycles toward automotive qualification. Unlike lithium-ion batteries, these solid-state cells charge from 15% to over 90% in 18 minutes at room temperature and deliver high power with discharge rates up to 4C. Factorial’s AI-driven electrolyte formulation enables performance in temperatures from -30°C to 45°C (-22°F to 113°F), overcoming previous solid-state limitations.
“Battery development is about compromise. While optimizing one feature is simple, balancing high energy density, cycle life, fast charging, and safety in an automotive-sized battery with OEM validation is a breakthrough,” said Siyu Huang, CEO of Factorial Energy. “This achievement with Stellantis is bringing next-generation battery technology from research to reality.”
The collaboration optimizes battery pack design for reduced weight and improved efficiency, enhancing vehicle range and affordability. Stellantis invested $75 million in Factorial in 2021 and plans to integrate these batteries into a demonstration fleet by 2026. This fleet will validate the technology’s real-world performance, a critical step toward commercialization.
The milestone aligns with Stellantis’ push for sustainable EV solutions, leveraging Factorial’s disruptive technology to meet the rising demand for high-performance batteries. As the companies refine pack architecture, the validated cells promise faster charging and greater efficiency, potentially reshaping the EV market. With the demonstration fleet on the horizon, Stellantis and Factorial are poised to lead the solid-state battery push, delivering cost-effective, high-range EVs to consumers.
News
Tesla China vehicle registrations rise 51% in April’s fourth week
In the week ending April 27, Tesla China saw 10,300 new vehicle registrations.
Tesla China’s new vehicle registrations saw a notable rise in the week of April 21-27, 2025. Over the week, the electric vehicle maker’s registrations saw an impressive 51% week-over-week rise, suggesting that domestic vehicle deliveries are on the rise once more.
Tesla China Results
In the week ending April 27, Tesla China saw 10,300 new vehicle registrations. This represents a notable rise from the company’s registration numbers in the past weeks of April. For context, Tesla China saw 3,600 registrations in the week ending April 6, 5,400 registrations in the week ending April 13, and 6,780 registrations in the week ending April 20, 2025.
Considering that April is the first month of the second quarter, expectations were high that Tesla China was allocating Giga Shanghai’s output for vehicle exports. With 10,300 registrations in the week ending April 27, however, it would appear that the company’s domestic deliveries are picking up once more.
Tesla China does not report its weekly sales figures, though a general idea of the company’s overall perforce in the domestic auto sector can be inferred through new vehicle registrations. Fortunately, these registrations are closely tracked by industry watchers, as well as some local automakers like Li Auto.
Tesla Model 3 and Model Y in Focus
Tesla China produces the Model Y and Model 3 in Giga Shanghai. Both vehicles are also exported from China to foreign territories. As per industry watchers, it would appear that both the Model 3 and Model Y saw an increase in registrations in the week ending April 27.
The Model 3, for one, appears to have seen 3,200 registrations in the week ending April 27, a 14% increase from the 2,800 that were registered in the week ending April 20. For context, Tesla China saw just 1,500 new Model 3 registrations in the week ending April 13 and 1,040 registrations in the week ending April 6.
The Model Y, on the other hand, saw 7,100 registrations in the week ending April 27. That’s a 77.5% increase from the 4,000 that were registered in the week ending April 20. Tesla also saw 3,900 registrations in the week ending April 13, and 2,540 registrations in the week ending April 6, 2025.
Tesla Board member and Airbnb co-founder loads up on TSLA ahead of robotaxi launch
Stellantis unveils solid-state battery for EVs
Tesla China vehicle registrations rise 51% in April’s fourth week
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